Below, see all four legs of a Christmas Day +503 Ravens vs Texans same-game parlay
With a pair of playoff-bound teams in action, the NFL could not have picked a better game for Christmas Day, as the Baltimore Ravens head south to take on the Houston Texans. Knowing how electric the likes of Derrick Henry and C.J. Stroud can be, we asked Santa for nothing but offense in today's same-game parlay. Kickoff for Ravens vs Texans on Christmas Day is set for 4:30 pm ET.
This week's Ravens vs Texans SGP adds up to +503, meaning a $100 bet will net a profit of $503, but only if all four legs hit.
Like last Thursday's Broncos vs Chargers SGP, I'm taking the first half over in Ravens vs Texans while the line remains at a surprisingly comfortable 23.5 points. On Christmas, we get the benefit of having a pair of medium-to-high-scoring offenses face off against medium-to-high-scoring defenses.
The Ravens' high-powered offense is third-best in the league, while their scoring defense ranks just twentieth. Their scoring metrics match up well against those of Houston, whose scoring offense and defense currently rank 13th and 10th, respectively. Things get considerably merrier for our parlay when it comes to first half scoring.
After 15 games, the Ravens' 14.7 1st Half P/G is good for third in the league, while the Texans are eighth at 13.7. Though Houston's recent scoring average is trending backwards, dropping to 9.7 over their last three games, the Ravens compensate by averaging 16.7 first half points over their last three.
Even better is how Houston does a lot more scoring in the first half at home, putting up 17.1 P/G at NRG Stadium, compared to just 5.6 P/G in the second half.
Add that to the 14.8 P/G the Ravens have been averaging in the first half on the road this season and you get why this is the lead leg of my parlay.
If you don't know it by now, the Derrick Henry Renaissance is very real and the Texans should be very worried about it.
Before you ask, no, I'm not taking any stock in Henry's last two games against Houston (14 A/G, 25.5 Y/G, 0 TDs), both coming in 2023 when he was playing behind a Tennessee Titans offensive line that was arguably the worst in the league.
Instead, look to the five games prior, when Henry was putting up "Bo Jackson Tecmo Bowl" numbers: 28.6 A/G, 203.6 Y/G, and 10 TDs. How is that stat line real?
Three of those five games took place in Houston, meaning El Tractorcito has absolutely no qualms with lighting up the scoreboard in NRG Stadium.
Now, the '24 Texans defensive front is considerably better than the ones Henry scorched during his Titans' heyday, so we can't go too overboard with expectations. Houston's defensive rushing stats over the past six seasons are as follows:
They've experienced a slight dip in 2024, with Houston currently sitting 11th in Y/G and 7th in Rushing 1st Downs, but are T-21st in Y/A and T-27th in rush TDs allowed. And, according to ESPN, the Texans also boast the No. 2 Run Stop Win Rate (to go along with a No. 1 Pass Rush Win Rate).
Nevertheless, they're still allowing over 96 yards per game. All we're asking for from Henry is 92, which is very doable considering the season he's having. He'll get plenty of touches, as the Ravens will likely aim to keep their league-best offense as balanced as possible.
If anything, I'm more worried about Henry securing a touchdown for the SGP, but only marginally.
Sure, it's been over a month since his last touchdown, but after opening the season with ten TDs in eleven games, that just means Henry will be hungry for his next six points. In this case, it's not an "if," but a "when."
I'm going to keep this one real simple. C. J. Stroud is averaging 232.8 Pass Y/G this season, while the Ravens pair the best rush defense (83.3 Y/G) with the fifth-worst pass defense (242.5 Y/G). I wonder, what part of Baltimore's defense will Demeco Ryans be targeting?
To their credit, Baltimore's pass defense has steadily improved throughout the season. After giving up 294.9 Y/G in their first ten games, the Ravens have allowed just 174.8 over their last five. That's great and all, but I don't buy it.
Those five games were against some of the worst passing offenses in the league. Whether it's stat-padding or fortuitous timing, playing the Chargers (24th), Giants (29th), Eagles (31st), and the Steelers twice (24th) in consecutive games can make any pass defense look good.
To be fair, the Ravens will make life difficult for Stroud on Christmas, but he'll get his yardage. Even without Tank Dell, who's now on the IR, Stroud will need to go full gunslinger if he wants to keep up with the Ravens' potent offense.
And if you're feeling saucy, I'd consider taking the rushing yards under for Joe Mixon (64.5 at -115) as a fifth leg of the parlay. That's how much I think the Texans will focus on their passing game on Wednesday.