Sunday Sweats: Eight bets to add to your NFL Week 16 card

By Case Keefer

Sunday Sweats: Eight bets to add to your NFL Week 16 card

The officials mangled more than their clock management at the end of last week's Washington Commanders at New Orleans Saints game.

The crew also did some serious damage to bettors' bankrolls, including the one belonging to Sunday Sweats. Nearly every advantage teaser -- including the one from the Week 15 column -- included Washington laying 1.5 points.

The Commanders should have secured that cover with a stop on Saints tight end Foster Moreau at the 1-yard line in the final seconds, but instead, a referee errantly stopped the clock. Moreau scored on the next play.

The Commanders got an ensuing two-point conversion stop to escape with a 20-19 victory, but that was a moot point to the many whom teased them down.

Chalk it up as another bad beat and move on. That's the philosophy of Sunday Sweats even as it's getting harder to employ as the season stretches on.

Another losing week, in part due to the great clock mistakes, increases my chances of suffering the first losing campaign of the five-year history of this column.

I can't let that happen.

Find all of Week 16's wagers below. This column is considered an extension of Weekend Wagers and plays from both will be tracked in the record. Non point spread bets placed inside of the weekly NFL pick'em and elsewhere will also be accounted for here. Make sure to check back to lasvegassun.com Sunday for one final bet, on a prop in the Raiders' gameday section that will also be attached to the Sunday Sweats record.

Tasty Total (17-12, $960): Los Angeles Rams at New York Jets under 46.5 points (Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook)

$220 to win $200

Last week in this same category, I trashed the Jets' defense en route to taking an over. That bet ultimately flew in and now sets up an opportunity to buy low on the unit. New York at least still has enough talent in the secondary to match up with the Rams' feared receiver of duo of Puka Nacua and Cooper Kupp. Los Angeles often prefers to keep the ball on the ground and play slow-paced game anyway. It's also going to be cold and windy at MetLife Stadium, which is a notorious under stadium given criticisms about the surface. These teams have more than enough offensive firepower to go over, but the Jets' defense might bounce back and the Rams' unit is young and has improved throughout the season.

Two- Or Three-Team Teaser (5-11, -$1,342): Cincinnati Bengals -2.5, Atlanta Falcons -2.5 and San Francisco 49ers +7 at +160 (BetMGM)

$200 to win $320

Pairing together the obvious two teaser sides downed me last week, but I can't resist. Let's try it again, only with a variation this time around. Bengals -2.5 and Falcons -2.5 are the most obvious two-teamer available but it's not available to be made at Caesars/William Hill, which has the only bettable two-team teaser prices in Nevada. Atlanta is a 9-point favorite instead of an 8.5-point favorite. So I'll pivot to BetMGM, which has the best three-team price available at +160 and throw in the 49ers with the two aforementioned sides. San Francisco has been better than Miami this year by most measures and arguably shouldn't be an underdog at all, not even by a single point like BetMGM has it.

Moneyline Parlay (2-12, -$1,221.92): Baltimore Ravens, Tennessee Titans, New York Jets and Seattle Seahawks "Lucky 15" round robin (STN Sports)

$375 to win $2,529

My plan was to ditch the round-robin dream after a second straight loser in Week 15, but STN Sports' moneyline prices drew back in. The shop is being way too generous on their underdog odds this week. Seattle at +135 to beat Minnesota, Tennessee at +175 to beat Indianapolis and the Jets at +145 to beat the Rams are all higher numbers than those teams' point-spreads would mathematically indicate. They're also all the best prices in town, as is Baltimore at -280 to beat Pittsburgh in the second of two games today. That price sits as high as -350 elsewhere. So I bet all four moneylines as singles, two-teamers, three-teamers and one four-team parlay for $25 a way in what STN Sports has branded the "Lucky 15." Some return is therefore guaranteed as long as this bet doesn't get swept but, once again, I'm hoping three or four of the sides pull off victory and provide a reward to this gamble.

Player Prop (14-12, $86): Chuba Hubbard over 70.5 rushing yards at -113 (Boyd Sports)

$226 to win $200

The fourth-year pro out of Oklahoma State has slowed down after looking like one of the best running backs in the league for a stretch last month, but this could be a spot for a bounce back. The Panthers don't have anyone to challenge him for carries after adding rookie Jonathan Brooks to injured reserve last week. Hubbard never really received a chance to get going against the Cowboys last week because the Panthers fell down so early in the eventual 30-15 loss and had to resort to throwing. They should be able to keep it closer against the Cardinals, which have been mediocre against the run this season. Arizona sits 20th in the NFL in allowing 4.5 yards per carry.

The NFL's best wide receiver this season was shut out of the end zone for the first time in a month last week as the Bengals beat the Titans. Don't get used to it. Maybe it's too much wishful thinking but I believe the Bengals want to secure their franchise weapon's triple receiving crown and allow him to make a late push for Offensive Player of the Year. That's secondary anyway. The Bengals' offense just operates better when Chase is getting his full complement of targets. There's plenty of incentive to make sure their offense is at their best to win a straight game. It's still a longshot but the Bengals' playoff aspirations got a little life Thursday with the Chargers knocking off the Broncos, whom travel to Cincinnati next week. Cleveland rates No. 31 in the league in defending opposing No. 1 receivers, adding more value to pro-Chase bets in this matchup.

Lookahead Line (9-9, -$317.50): San Francisco 49ers +3 vs. Detroit Lions in Week 17 (SuperBook)

$330 to win $300

I heard someone suggest this week that San Francisco and Detroit are in comparable injury situations. Not even close. Detroit leads the NFL with 22 players on injured reserve and now has a defense that looks like a shell of the unit that was rolling in the middle of the year. The 49ers have cluster injuries in the offensive backfield and defensive front seven, but nothing to that extent. They're still one of the most talented teams and shouldn't be this big of an underdog at home -- on "Monday Night Football" no less -- to anyone but the NFL's most elite teams. Detroit stood alone as the best team in the league a month or two ago, but all the absences have taken their toll. The Lions are now more in the second tier, and this shapes up as more of a pick'em.

Future Finding (0-2, -$400): Minnesota Vikings at +625 to win the NFC and Green Bay Packers at 8-to-1 to win the NFC (BetMGM and Wynn, respectively)

$240 to win $1,560 on the Vikings and $200 to win $1,600 on the Packers

After picking an AFC Super Bowl representative here last week, I wanted to find an NFC counterpart to pair this time around. The problem was, I couldn't decide between two choices. So why not bet them both? The main impetus was to bet against Detroit (described why above) and Philadelphia, whom I suspect may lose this week at Washington as it deals with several of its own high-profile injuries. Minnesota controls its own destiny to get the No. 1 seed but has the toughest schedule remaining with a slate that includes going to Seattle this week, hosting Green Bay in Week 17 and traveling to Detroit in Week 18. The Vikings are probably going to have to start the postseason on the road, but they're well-rounded enough to beat anyone. Ditto for Green Bay, which has worked itself up No. 3 in DVOA and looks like the proverbial, "team no one wants to play." Philadelphia has beat me all season and maybe I'm just setting it up to do so again, but the NFC looks more wide open than the AFC. I'll put that belief into action with shots on a couple teams floating around the middle of the odds board.

I've been betting on Villanova basically every game and see no reason to stop now. Not when the Wildcats are going up against a Jays' team that looks like a shell of what was expected going into the season after losing local product Pop Isaacs to hip surgery. Creighton has lost two straight -- including getting blown out at Georgetown on Wednesday -- and doesn't have the backcourt to match with Villanova's offensively explosive unit. Eric Dixon has been one of the best players in the Big East and should score 20 points or more for the fifth straight game here. Creighton should be more like a 3-point favorite than pushing up against laying more than two possessions worth of points.

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