GRAND RAPIDS, Mich. (WOOD) -- The last two winters in West Michigan have been vastly different.
The 2022-2023 winter brought the third snowiest winter on record in Grand Rapids. The 2023-2024 winter brought well below average snow with quick melts to follow. What does this setup mean for the upcoming winter?
TWO-WEEK WINTER: 2023-2024
This winter is already off to a colder and snowier start than the last.
The winter of 2023-24 has affectionately become known as the "two-week winter" in West Michigan. Of Grand Rapids' 47.5" of snow last season, 65% fell in a two-week stretch in mid-January. That same stretch also featured the only true Arctic blast. Last winter was Michigan's warmest on record and was among the top five warmest in West Michigan. The strong El Niño was to blame for warm temperatures and lack of snowfall.
WHAT IS AN "AVERAGE" WINTER?
In December, January and February, Grand Rapids averages around 60 inches of snow. Including the surrounding months of October, November, March and April, that number increases to around 78 inches. The first inch of snow in Grand Rapids typically falls right around November 20.
Regarding temperature, Grand Rapids typically sees an average high of 36° in December. That average high tumbles to 31° in January and 33° in February. The average low starts at 24° in December before slipping into the teens for January and February.
Meteorologists use two different terms to describe seasonal trends: "normal" and "average." While both may sound similar, they look at two completely different data sets.
The term "average" describes a mathematical mean that represents all the data from the past. In Grand Rapids, most of our temperature and precipitation data dates back to the late 1800s. This data set tends to be less accurate due to advances in technology that now allow us to measure these variables much better today.
The term "normal" is a 30-year average generated every 10 years by NOAA (National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration). Our current data set ranges from 1991 to 2020. The current normal data set is used much more frequently since it paints a more accurate picture of the current climate.
When comparing the last two "normal" data sets (1981-2010 and 1991-2020), there is not a lot of difference in high and low-temperature trends. Regarding precipitation amounts, there seem to be slightly higher totals trending in southwest Michigan.
THE SNOW ISN'T ALWAYS STICKING...
A more noticeable trend in recent winters is that snow seems to be sticking on the ground for a shorter period in West Michigan compared to decades past.
During the 1920s through the 1980s, there was an average of 101 days with at least an inch of snow stacked on the ground per year in Grand Rapids. From the 1990s through the 2010s though, that number has fallen to 82 days, a nearly three-week difference. The shift has continued over the past few years with 2024 having only 19 days during the winter with greater than an inch of snow on the ground. That's the lowest total since the winter of 1982-83.
CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER SEASONAL OUTLOOK
Each season, with great anticipation, the Climate Prediction Center releases its temperature and precipitation probabilities for the winter months.
It appears West Michigan has a higher probability for a snowier winter this season with temperatures expected to be at least close to average with a bullseye of above-average precipitation. The million-dollar question is how much of that precipitation will be frozen and how much liquid?