Welcome to Scott Wheeler's 2025 rankings of every NHL organization's prospects. You can find the complete ranking and more information on the project and its criteria here, as we count down daily from No. 32 to No. 1. The series, which includes in-depth evaluations and insight from sources on nearly 500 prospects, runs from Jan. 8 to Feb. 7.
The Lightning didn't make a pick in the first three rounds of the 2024 draft, but they did make seven picks in the final four rounds and acquired a recent first-rounder in Conor Geekie via trade. That has their pool in a slightly better position than it was a year ago, though it does remain fairly thin on talent/upside.
2024 prospect pool rank: No. 29 (change: +5)
Geekie has played exclusively in the NHL this season but I have decided to include him one last time due to a combination of his age (20) and the limited minutes he has played (about 12 minutes per game).
Geekie is a big forward (6-foot-4, 207 pounds) who can play both center and wing. He's got clear skill as a handler, passer and shooter and a boldness to his game, especially in terms of comfort trying things with the puck, that I admire and you don't often see in players his size. He's got impressive hands and body control for his size, which helps him control pucks inside the offensive zone and make plays while also getting the upper hand in board battles.
He plays through bumps and thrives taking pucks from the cycle to dangerous areas, pushing through the guts of the ice in control, or even drifting to the perimeter in control to facilitate. He also skates well enough for his size for me -- it's probably a little below average, and he can look like he lacks pace but I wouldn't call him slow/it a major impediment -- and I think he moves better than his big brother Morgan (now with the Bruins) did at the same age, creating his fair share in transition as a result.
I do find he forces things too much by trying to go one-on-one and create something that's not there. There's also a hunch to his stride. He's got some work to do in the faceoff circle, too. But it's hard to deny the impressive size-hands combination he has considering his length. He's got a real ability to hang onto the puck, draw players into him and then make plays through or around them. He processes the game quickly offensively, knowing where he wants to go with the puck early and constantly pre-surveying so that he always knows where his options are. He makes an unusual amount of soft little plays for a player his size and can attack into coverage because of his hands. He's really quite comfortable in control of the puck. He's also got a hard wrister.
Geekie's a legitimate young player with a desirable set of skills. As he continues to work on his pace/skating, he's got the touch and skill to become a pretty unique player. I expect he'll have a productive career as a middle-six forward who brings a length-skill combo to his line.
Howard is a player I diverged from the consensus on in his draft year, ranking him in the front half of the first round when he was drafted at the tail end of it. After an up-and-down freshman year at Minnesota Duluth and a transfer to MSU gave me some pause about whether I was a little too high on him, he has gotten back to looking like the player I believed him to be with the Spartans, where he's been a top team's top offensive player as a sophomore and junior these last two years. He also scored seven goals and nine points at the Gothenburg World Juniors, where he was an important part of an excellent line and made some big plays in big moments, including the gold medal game, and was impressive on my trip down to East Lansing last year. This season, his production has gone from point-per-game to well above and I expect he'll sign and turn pro in the spring.
Howard is a player with the kind of track record of success that nearly always translates. Though he's "short" at 5-foot-10, he's not small, with a muscular build that makes him sturdier than you might expect on his feet and over pucks. He's got quick crossover acceleration with a hurried stride that cranks its way up ice to give him good speed. There are times when he can look like an all-offense player but when his effort level and tenaciousness match his skill level, you'll see him around the puck all game, which we've seen more of as he has ramped up his off-puck movement and drive at MSU.
Inside the offensive zone, he's extremely dangerous on the puck, with underrated creativity to complement his high-end skill; though he tries things occasionally at the offensive-zone blue line that he shouldn't get away with, he also usually executes them. He makes a lot of plays under the triangles of defenders' sticks, he navigates in and out of holes in traffic really well, and when he's in attack mode taking pucks from a standstill into the middle of the ice to create looks, he's a ton of fun to watch and forces opposing players to reach in on him, which draws a lot of penalties.
But he's even more dangerous off the puck, with a scorer's sixth sense for always arriving just in time in Grade-A locations, whether that's hiding in coverage or just staying around the puck at the net. He's the kind of player who finds ways to get open in the home-plate area and then makes quick, aggressive finishing plays either with his hands or a heavy one-touch/catch-and-release shot. I think some of his so-so freshman year can now be attributed to some of his struggles to create for himself, but also that they didn't have a natural playmaker to find him in soft space and facilitate for him. He's going to need that at the next level to make the most of his talent.
Ultimately, Howard is a player who is always going to have PP utility but will require the right coach, usage and linemates to be the impactful top-six winger I think he's capable of being at five-on-five. It has been nice, though, over the last two years to see him play with more jump, get to more loose pucks, move his feet to get off the wall and to the slot/net, and be above and supporting more pucks when the other team has possession.
Gauthier, the No. 1 pick in the 2021 QMJHL draft and son of former 10-year NHLer Denis Gauthier, is widely credited for his pro-style game and consistency. He had a strong showing at the Hlinka Gretzky Cup, where he scored six goals in five games. He had a strong draft year with a top team in Sherbrooke, then a strong post-draft season with another top team in Drummondville -- particularly in last year's QMJHL playoffs, where he was excellent. And while his numbers haven't maybe popped this year like you'd hope and he didn't find the scoresheet at the World Juniors, I thought he was effective in his role there. He's not a star and won't be a big point producer in the NHL, but he's a solid prospect who has an opportunity to become an up-and-down-the-lineup, plug-and-play NHLer.
He brings a lot to the table. He's a versatile, hardworking player who excels in the most practical facets of the game, gets to the middle of the ice, forechecks and plays with energy and intention. He's consistent shift to shift and game to game and while he might lack the dynamism of a true top prospect, he can make plays in a variety of ways on and off the puck and the ice usually tilts in his team's favor when he's out there -- it's not a coincidence he has played on winning teams in the Q.
I think he's going to be an NHLer. The bigger question is whether he's going to be more of a third-line secondary contributor who can play on both special teams or a fourth-liner who is more of a five-on-five/PK guy. He's a good, effective hockey player, though, there's no question about that. Detail, work ethic and pro habits can take a player a long way with average or slightly above-average skill.
One of my favorites from the 2021 draft, Duke's a short but stocky winger with a nose for the net who impressed me in a bottom-six role as a freshman with the stacked Wolverines and was successful in a greater role in each of the two consecutive seasons after. He eventually factored as an above-a-point-per-game player -- his 26 goals in 41 games were fifth-most in college hockey last year -- as a 20-year-old junior before turning pro. There's nobody in hockey Duke's size that plays the style he does, so he's truly a one-of-one player type. He has continued to play his style at the pro level in his rookie season in the AHL this year as well, which has been really positive.
Duke plays bigger than his size, stays on top of pucks when he's being leaned on and always seems to get open off the puck. He also goes to the net a whole lot (it is the hallmark of his game) for his size and is great on tips there -- including, believe it or not, in that role on the PP, which is rare for a shorter player but he does it so well. Some scouts have questioned his foot speed over the years but his game is built around determination at the net and rebounds, not rush offense or speed. He plays a hard, tenacious game, he loves to drive the crease and make plays into bodies, he regularly outmuscles bigger opponents (which he'll insist is actually a strength of his if you ever ask him) and he's got quick hands and a wrist shot that can beat goalies from midrange, though again most of his goals come from right at the top of the crease/post.
If he can continue to improve upon his acceleration, he'll have a chance to carve out a unique career for himself in the NHL. Don't be surprised if he becomes a Rafaël Harvey-Pinard type who works his way through the AHL and emerges as a useful NHLer in his mid-20s.
After scoring 42 goals and 87 points in a combined 70 regular-season and playoff games in a lone season in Everett at 18, Huuhtanen was one of the better young players in Liiga over two seasons, outperforming players who were drafted in front of him while maintaining his physical, at-times mean, power-forward style. You often see young players pull back a little as they get their feet wet in pro hockey, but he leaned into his identity. I liked him at the 2023 World Juniors too, where he was a consistent presence offensively for Finland. Now he's a rookie in Syracuse and has had a pretty respectable first year in the AHL.
Huuhtanen's a 6-foot-2, 200-plus pound forward who plays a direct, attacking game featuring good overall skill and a heavy wrist shot, though he often surprises goalies one-on-one on breakaways by deking instead of shooting. He's broad-shouldered, holds his ground with the puck and generates a lot of power through his snap shot. When he drives and looks to attack into the middle third of the ice, he's a lot to handle. He'll forecheck and go to the dirty areas and the net/slot.
He's got the tools of a good bottom-six, checking-and-scoring winger if he can stay on his current trajectory. Considering he was the third-last pick of his draft, that's some tidy work. He's not the fleetest of foot but there aren't many 21-year-olds with pro qualities who've led pro teams in scoring.
Finley has opened each of the last two seasons (his second and third as a pro) on injured reserve, but he returned from both and played well. He's a unique player type as a 6-foot-6 forward with some depth NHL upside. There just aren't many players as big as him who make it up front. He's got more talent than his numbers -- both at the end of his WHL career on a stacked Winnipeg team and so far in the AHL, where he has actually been pretty productive -- indicate, and he has played well when I've watched the Crunch with positive on-ice results to show for it. He's got plenty of time to continue to find his frame, find his niche and hopefully develop into a player who gives the Lightning a different look in the bottom six. He's also already 220 pounds, which is something to keep an eye on (for positive and negative reasons). If he can figure out how to use his size a little more -- he has never been a particularly physical player, believe it or not -- there's a lot to work with there in the hopes that he can be a Brian Boyle type.
There are tools to his game you'd expect him to have: puck protection abilities that help him dictate cycle shifts, plus net-front acumen on tips and redirects. But then there are also tools you don't expect: some perimeter playmaking ability, good coordination and dexterity so that he can keep his head up when he has the puck. I'd like to see him use his puck skill to attack the slot a little more often and look for his shot, rather than deferring; when he drops his shoulder and cuts to the net, he's tough to knock off the puck. He'll need to continue to clean up his skating if he wants to be able to play at NHL speed, though his skating isn't a huge deficiency considering his size and has made some progress despite the injuries.
He's the kind of player every organization's development group ought to want to work with and see if they can turn into an NHL option.
Szturc turned me into a fan at the 2023 World Juniors in Halifax and Moncton when he was excellent on a very successful line with Rangers pick Jaroslav Chmelar and Golden Knights pick Jakub Brabenec for the Czechs. He was also the second-leading scorer on a weak Rockets team, registering 79 points in 56 games (a 96-point pace had he not missed games to be with Czechia's national team) that season. Last year, he followed up that breakout by scoring 40 goals and 95 points in 73 combined regular season and playoff games with Kelowna. Now, as a first-year pro with Syracuse, he's already playing important minutes for them: a little more than 17 minutes per game, which at the time of writing was sixth among Syracuse's forwards behind Duke and Finley in the high 17s but ahead of Huuhtanen in the high 16s.
He's a very smart player who understands how to use spacing to his advantage to play a tactile game. He skates well, he's got a nifty wrist-shot release, he's got good puck skills and passing intuition and he works hard off the puck to keep himself involved in plays. I've enjoyed watching him in these last few years and while I'm not sure if he'll be an NHLer, I think he could become a call-up option and play some games at some point.
The 6-foot-5, 218-pound Schmidt has traveled an unconventional path. He went from the GTHL to the NTDP and then back to Ontario in Kitchener and later Kingston, bouncing between the OHL and the AHL before landing full-time in Syracuse this season, where he has been an effective defender for them in 16 minutes per game on average. Typically a path like that would make it hard for a player to progress up levels, particularly when a contending OHL team trades you to upgrade elsewhere/give you a better opportunity somewhere else, which is pretty rare for kids who make it. When you're Schmidt's size, though, and you've got some redeeming qualities, you're going to get every opportunity to succeed and sometimes you need more runway to figure it out.
The strength, length and physicality are what you'd expect. It's his game in open ice and foot races where he was getting burned for a while -- he didn't have great boots and I'd evaluate them at slightly below average now. When his timing is on, he can defend with a commanding presence and while he's never going to be a point-producer he has a heavy shot and actually handles the puck pretty well. Now it's about building him into a third-pairing or No. 7/8 option. I've never been super high on him but I see the appeal, he's worth building up and teams like his player type in depth roles -- or even as call-up options.
Gill didn't have the statistical profile of an NHL prospect ahead of the 2022 draft, but he had the physical tools as a mobile, athletic, 6-foot-2 (now 6-foot-3) defenseman who made a good first pass, defended well in man-to-man situations through neutral ice and got his shots through. The Lightning bet on that foundation, hoping he could take a step. And that's exactly what he did, becoming a much more involved and confident player on both sides of the puck. He was also one of the younger players in that draft, which speaks to his quicker-than-most progression shortly after it. He's still a work in progress but he was the third-to-last pick of the draft and they've signed him.
He actually began this season in the AHL before being sent back to the QMJHL to play with the contending Moncton Wildcats in their second-half push for a championship. It's worth noting that that initial jump to the pro level was followed by season-ending shoulder surgery to deal with an issue that had bothered him and limited him to just 12 games last year, where he was the captain with a contending Rouyn-Noranda team. I expect him to be one of the top two-way D in the QMJHL with the Wildcats. I think he's at least got a chance to someday play NHL games as a No. 6-8 type too.
Kurth is a heavy-set winger whose scrappy skill game led multiple NHL scouts to tell me they pushed to draft him in his first year of eligibility before the Lightning picked him in the sixth round on re-entry in 2022. After starting his college career in a depth role where he was effective as a freshman, he has become one of the Gophers' top forwards as a junior, making things happen out of the dirty areas. I think he's got just enough talent to potentially work his way into the production he'll need to get signed.
I've wondered about whether he's fleet-footed enough from a standstill (he's got some jump and some power when he gets racing) to make the plays he has made between battles at lower levels, but his work ethic gets him to where he needs to be. He'll be a good pro player. I'm not sure he'll be an NHLer but I could see him becoming a fourth-line option for somebody at some point.
Steen was a great story last year, dominating at the J20 level in Sweden and performing well both in the second-tier HockeyAllsvenskan and at two international events for Norway, where he played well at both the World Juniors and men's worlds. That earned him a seventh-round selection by the Lightning and a contract with Örebro in the SHL. His rookie season in the SHL has been divided into two parts. After playing very limited minutes early on, he has played between 12-16 minutes of late and has started to generate some looks, scoring his first few SHL goals.
Steen's a 6-foot-1, 190-plus pound winger who can play with jump and has good goal-scoring instincts around the offensive zone, sliding into spots in the slot to finish off plays with his hard and accurate one-touch shot. I don't view him as a natural playmaker or overt play-driver, but he's a good athlete who works hard with solid secondary skill and a confidence on and off the puck that he can make a difference. He also plays a very intentional game that wants to take pucks to the middle. Here's a good example of that on his backhand:
It wasn't the consensus opinion, but I liked Burrows better than his teammate Javon Moore (who went 16 picks earlier) when I watched them last year with Minnetonka High, which was also supported by his larger USHL sample to that point. But then Moore went to the USHL post-draft and Burrows decided to make the full-time jump to NCAA, where it has been a learning curve for him in a limited role as a freshman. Still, he's got some legit skill and playmaking sense. He's also got an NHL shot that he can finish with from range inside the offensive zone, though he's still waiting for it to fall in college.
The speed and strength top the to-do list because there are some natural offensive elements to his game. I like his competitiveness, too. I trust he'll be well-developed at Denver as well, so it may just take some time. His forward skating stride is a little too compact and will need to lengthen out for the rest of his game to be projectable, but he's talented, he seems committed to playing the game the right way and the college timeline should serve him well. He's worth following.
Shaugabay took the typical Minnesota hockey path through high school to the USHL and, you guessed it, the Bulldogs. He was one of the best high school players I've watched in recent years and is having a nice freshman year as one of the more productive players on a losing team that struggles to score or create offense. Shaugabay is a small but talented player on the puck who broke T.J. Oshie's scoring record at Warroad, won Minnesota's prestigious Mr. Hockey Award and continued to make skill plays with Green Bay (though I would have liked to see him get to the inside a little more) in the USHL after high school. He can handle it, skate with it and he's a natural power-play type and heady passer of the puck (sometimes too much so) who relies on his smarts and puck skill to solve problems.
While he's not the fastest skater and projects as more of a winger than the center he was coming up, he finds ways to make everyone else play at his pace; he has real talent and thinks the game at an advanced level. He's a bit of a long shot to make it but an intriguing prospect who should be very productive in college by the time he's done. With the right patience, there's an outcome where he's a top college player as an upperclassman and works his way into a pro contract. It'll be years before the Lightning really know what they have, though.
A big part of the 2006 age group with the Finnish national team, often playing in its top six and with a letter on his jersey, Saarelainen is a small but quick forward. Though he was relegated to a reduced role in his first World Juniors in Ottawa, I'd expect him to be back playing a more pronounced one in Minnesota next year. He's got twists and turns, stops and starts -- he's one of the better skaters in the 2024 draft coming in and out of breaks -- and good speed in straight lines, too. He works hard. The worry is that while skilled, he's not so dynamic at his size as to eliminate the inherent risk.
He has dominated Finnish junior and hasn't looked out of place in pro the last two years. He's committed to playing defense even if it'll never be a strength at his size and I expect him to have a good pro career because of his style and his skating. He's a long shot to have an NHL career, though. I like watching him play, I'm just not sure what he is.