NFL Picks | Week 17


NFL Picks | Week 17

Christmas Day  Kansas City (-3) at Pittsburgh: The Chiefs can set a franchise record for wins in the regular season and wrap up the No. 1 seed along with home-field advantage throughout the AFC playoffs as they continue their quest for a third straight Super Bowl title. The scuffling Steelers are trying to snap a two-game losing streak after missing an opportunity to clinch the AFC North. CHIEFS: 24-20

 Baltimore (-5½) at Houston: The Ravens have won five in a row over the Texans, including 34-10 in a divisional playoff game last season. Baltimore can move into first place in the AFC North with a win and loss by Pittsburgh. But Lamar Jackson and Derrick Henry face a tough challenge against Houston's defense. C.J. Stroud and the Texans are reeling after losing Tank Dell to a devastating knee injury. RAVENS: 23-19

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Thursday's game

 Seattle (-3½) at Chicago: The Seahawks have to win to maintain slim playoff hopes. The Bears have lost nine straight. Geno Smith and Jaxon Smith-Njigba should have a big day against Chicago's pass defense. SEAHAWKS: 26-20

Saturday's games

 Los Angeles Chargers (-4) at New England: The Chargers would clinch a wild-card spot with a victory over the Patriots, who battled hard against the Bills. Los Angeles is 9-2 against the spread as favorites. Justin Herbert is 9-0 ATS in the Eastern time zone in his career. The Patriots have lost eight straight home games in December. BEST BET: CHARGERS: 23-16

 Denver at Cincinnati (-3): Joe Burrow and the Bengals have to win to keep their slim playoff hopes alive. They're favorites for the 12th time this season despite a losing record. The Broncos would clinch a wild-card berth with a win. UPSET SPECIAL: BRONCOS: 23-22

 Arizona at Los Angeles Rams (-6): A four-game winning streak has the Rams on the verge of securing the NFC West. Los Angeles aims to avenge a lopsided loss to Arizona in Week 2. The Cardinals were eliminated from the playoffs and are reduced to playing spoiler. RAMS: 26-16

Sunday's games

 New York Jets at Buffalo (-10): The Bills will know going in if they have a shot at the AFC's No. 1 seed. If the Chiefs beat the Steelers and lock it up, Buffalo's main priority will be keeping Josh Allen and everyone healthy. Still, they can rest in Week 18. After a subpar effort against the Patriots, the Bills can't take Aaron Rodgers and the Jets lightly. BILLS: 27-16

 Las Vegas (-1) at New Orleans: The Raiders already hurt their draft positioning by beating the Jaguars last week. Another win could further knock them down and negatively impact their quest for a franchise quarterback. But coach Antonio Pierce wants to win, and the players don't care about draft slots. The Saints can't get to the end of the season fast enough. RAIDERS: 20-16

 Carolina at Tampa Bay (-8): The Panthers have embraced the spoiler role and coach Dave Canales will try to derail his former team's playoff hopes. Bryce Young keeps improving and Chuba Hubbard is having a career year. Baker Mayfield and a turnover-prone offense have to overcome a depleted defense that couldn't stop Cooper Rush and the Cowboys. BUCCANEERS: 26-20

 Tennessee at Jacksonville (-1): The winner of this one really loses because it'll be costly in the race for draft positioning. TITANS: 19-17

 Indianapolis (-8) at New York Giants: The Giants have come too far to lose the No. 1 pick in the draft. The Colts are clinging to slim playoff hopes. Jonathan Taylor and Anthony Richardson combined for 308 yards and four TDs against the Titans. They could have similar results against New York. COLTS: 27-16

 Dallas at Philadelphia (-9½): The Cowboys are left to play for a winning record after being eliminated from the playoff race. The Eagles still need a win to secure the NFC East, but are almost locked into the No. 2 seed. Saquon Barkley is 268 yards away from breaking Eric Dickerson's single-season rushing record. EAGLES: 24-17

 Green Bay at Minnesota (-1): The Vikings are two wins away from the NFC's No. 1 seed with Sam Darnold. Let that sink in. But those won't be easy victories. Minnesota has to beat Green Bay and then Detroit on the road to win the NFC North and get home-field advantage throughout the playoffs. The Vikings, who are getting the Packers on short rest off a Monday night rout, have been overlooked and underrated. This is a statement game. VIKINGS: 27-22

 Miami (-6½) at Cleveland (3-12): Tua Tagovailoa and the Dolphins have slim playoff changes and get an opportunity to win a game in cold weather. A loss helps the Browns hold onto a top-five pick in the draft. DOLPHINS: 25-16

 Atlanta at Washington (-4): The Falcons regained control of their NFC South hopes when the Buccaneers lost. Now, they have a tough test against the Commanders with Michael Penix Jr. making his second start. Washington clinches a playoff berth with a win or a loss by Tampa Bay. COMMANDERS: 24-23

Monday's game

 Detroit (-4) at San Francisco: The Lions aim to avenge their loss in the NFC championship game. Detroit clinches the NFC's No. 1 seed with a win if the Packers beat the Vikings. If Minnesota beats Green Bay, the Lions have to beat the Vikings in Week 18 to secure the top seed so the result against San Francisco won't matter. In that case, Dan Campbell could choose to rest some of his starters in preparation for a winner-take-all regular-season finale. LIONS: 26-23

-- Rob Maaddi, Associated Press

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