The average point spread of the 20 first-round College Football Playoff games contested as part of the four-team bracket over the last decade was -8.
The average point spread of this year's four first-round College Football Playoff games as part of the new 12-team format is -8.5.
The more things change, the more they stay the same.
A more interesting trend to follow will be if the favorites keep up their high cashing pace in the new postseason.
Teams laying points finished 14-6 straight-up, 12-8 against the spread in the old College Football Playoff first round -- and that's only after underdogs finally found some bite over the last two years.
Underdogs covered three of the last four games, with the only exception when Michigan beat Alabama 27-20 in overtime last year as 5.5-point favorites.
Can Indiana, SMU, Clemson or Tennessee keep up the underdog renaissance over the next two days against Notre Dame, Penn State, Texas and Ohio State, respectively?
I'm split on the playoff games -- backing two favorites and two underdogs -- but not shying away from them. I've got plays on three on the four, and a lean on the final one.
Picks for every game are below and labeled in one of three confidence categories. Lines are the best currently available in Las Vegas on the chosen side. The record picking every game for the year stands at 414-321-9 (148-109-4 on plays, 129-98-2 on leans and 137-114-3 on guesses) after a 4-3 (1-2 on plays, 2-0 on leans and 1-1 on guesses) start to bowl season.
Cure Bowl at 9 a.m. Friday in Orlando: Ohio -5 vs. Jacksonville State, over/under: 55.5. While both teams lost their head coaches and will be directed by their offensive coordinators in an interim capacity, only Conference USA champion Jacksonville State has seen a mass exodus of players to the transfer portal alongside Rich Rodriguez. But reports are surfacing that many of those players will still participate here, and that should give the Gamecocks a fighting chance against the MAC Champion Bobcats. A 4.5-point move towards Ohio since open might be too much. Guess: Jacksonville State +5.
Gasparilla Bowl at 12:30 p.m. Friday in Tampa, Fla.: Tulane +12 vs. Florida, over/under: 49.5. The Gators are getting praise from far and wide after finishing the season with three straights wins and covers as five-star freshman quarterback DJ Lagway developed, but the Green Wave are no slouches themselves. The latter has maintained most of their roster with coach Jon Sumrall sticking around and should be able to attack Florida's rush-defense weakness with running back Makhi Hughes. Lean: Tulane +12.
College Football Playoff First-Round Game at 5 p.m. Friday: Indiana +7 at Notre Dame, over/under: 52.5. Play this game midseason and it might be a lot more interesting. Indiana was absolutely rolling for a while, but there's arguably not a team in the nation that's been as dangerous as Notre Dame over the last two months en route to building the nation's longest covering streak. The Hoosiers should be able to hang at the skill positions, but the Irish's advantage in the trenches might be too imposing to overcome. Play: Notre Dame -7.
College Football Playoff First-Round Game at 9 a.m. Saturday: SMU +8.5 at Penn State, over/under: 54. Mustangs quarterback Kevin Jennings and his collection of receivers have been underrated all year. Penn State's defense has regressed from its early-season heights, particularly against the pass. SMU should be able to score and might be more explosive. It should be more like a 6.5-point underdog in this matchup where program reputation seems to be holding too much weight. Play: SMU +8.5.
College Football Playoff First-Round Game at 1 p.m. Saturday: Clemson +11.5 at Texas, over/under: 51.5. The triumphant ACC Championship Game performance that vaulted the Tigers into the College Football Playoff featured them gaining less than 4 yards per play and finishing with a 31% post-game win expectancy per the SP+ ratings. Translation: This team is still highly flawed. Texas may have its warts too but the biggest one has been not finishing drives, something that tends to regress over time. Based on their statistical baselines, the Longhorns should win by two touchdowns. Play: Texas -11.5.
College Football Playoff First-Round Game at 5 p.m. Saturday: Tennessee +7.5 at Ohio State, over/under: 46.5. This number is just about right, unless Ohio State retries the methodical, ball-control strategy that backfired in a 13-10 loss to Michigan as a 19.5-point favorite. That probably won't happen, but Tennessee at least has the offensive upside to keep up with Ohio State's more talented roster. The Volunteers' defensive line is also too much of a plus matchup against Ohio State's beaten up offensive front to ignore. Lean: Tennessee +7.5.
Myrtle Beach Bowl at 8 a.m. Monday in Conway, S.C.: Coastal Carolina +10 vs. UTSA, over/under: 55. It's difficult to lay double digits against a team on their home field, but the Chanticleers have lost both of their quarterbacks and seen other parts of the roster also diminished by the transfer portal. The Roadrunners have more continuity going into the bowl game and caught fire at the end of the year after their young roster got over some initial growing pains. Lean: UTSA -10.
Famous Idaho Potato Bowl at 11:30 a.m. Monday in Boise, Idaho: Northern Illinois -3 vs. Fresno State, over/under: 39. Fresno State has lost more players, but well-liked interim coach Tim Skipper is sticking around to coach before Matt Entz takes over the program and that could provide a motivational boost. The Bulldogs are also more accustomed to playing on the blue turf at Albertsons Stadium, and points should be at a premium in what projects as a low-scoring game. Play: Fresno State +3.